A combination of global
warming and the El Niño weather system is set to make 2007 the warmest
year on record with far-reaching consequences for the planet, one of Britain's
leading climate experts has warned.
As the new year was ushered in with stormy
conditions across the UK, the forecast for the next 12 months is of extreme global
weather patterns which could bring drought to Indonesia and leave California under
a deluge.
The warning, from Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic
Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, was one of four sobering predictions
from senior scientists and forecasters that 2007 will be a crucial year for determining
the response to global warming and its effect on humanity.
Professor Jones
said the long-term trend of global warming - already blamed for bringing drought
to the Horn of Africa and melting the Arctic ice shelf - is set to be exacerbated
by the arrival of El Niño, the phenomenon caused by above-average sea temperatures
in the Pacific.
Combined, they are set to bring extreme conditions across the
globe and make 2007 warmer than 1998, the hottest year on record. It is likely
temperatures will also exceed 2006, which was declared in December the hottest
in Britain since 1659 and the sixth warmest in global records.
Professor Jones
said: "El Niño makes the world warmer and we already have a warming
trend that is increasing global temperatures by one to two tenths of a degrees
celsius per decade. Together, they should make 2007 warmer than last year and
it may even make the next 12 months the warmest year on record."
The warning
of the escalating impact of global warming was echoed by Jim Hansen, the American
scientist who, in 1988, was one of the first to warn of climate change.
In
an interview with The Independent, Dr Hansen predicted that global warming would
run out of control and change the planet for ever unless rapid action is taken
to reverse the rise in carbon emissions.
Dr Hansen said: "We just cannot
burn all the fossil fuels in the ground. If we do, we will end up with a different
planet.
"I mean a planet with no ice in the Arctic, and a planet where
warming is so large that it's going to have a large effect in terms of sea level
rises and the extinction of species."
His call for action is shared by
Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, who said that 2006
had shown that the "discussion is now over" on whether climate change
is happening. Writing in today's Independent, Sir David says progress has been
made in the past year but it is "essential" that a global agreement
on emissions is struck quickly. He writes: "Ultimately, only heads of state,
working together, can provide the new level of global leadership we need to steer
the world on a path towards a sustainable and prosperous future. We need to remember:
action is affordable - inaction is not."
The demands came as the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations agency that deals with climate
prediction, issued a warning that El Niño is already established over the
tropical Pacific basin. It is set to bring extreme weather across a swath of the
planet from the Americas and south-east Asia to the Horn of Africa for at least
the first four months of 2007.
El Niño, or "the Christ child"
because it is usually noticed around Christmas, is a weather pattern occurring
every two to seven years. The last severe El Niño, in 1997 and 1998, caused
more than 2,000 deaths and a worldwide damage bill of more than £20bn.
The
WMO said its latest readings showed that a "moderate" El Niño,
with sea temperatures 1.5C above average, was taking place which, in the worst
case scenario, could develop into an extreme weather pattern lasting up to 18
months, as in 1997-98. The UN agency noted that the weather pattern was already
having "early and intense" effects, including drought in Australia and
dramatically warm seas in the Indian Ocean, which could affect the monsoons. It
warned the El Niño could also bring extreme rainfall to parts of east Africa
which were last year hit by a cycle of drought and floods.
Its effect on the
British climate is difficult to predict, according to experts. But it will probably
add to the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures in the UK.
The return
of El Niño
* Aside from the seasons, El Niño and its twin, La
Niña, are the two largest single causes of variability in the world's climate
from year to year.
Both are dictated by shifts in temperature of the water
in the tropical Pacific basin between Australia and South America. Named from
the Spanish words for "Christ child" and "the girl" because
of their proximity to Christmas, they lead to dramatic shifts in the entire system
of oceanic and atmospheric factors from air pressure to currents.
A significant
rise in sea temperature leads to an El Niño event whereas a fall in temperature
leads to La Niña.
The cause of the phenomenon is not fully understood
but in an El Niño "event" the pool of warm surface water is forced
eastwards by the loss of the westerly trade winds. The sea water evaporates, resulting
in drenching rains over South America, particularly Peru and Ecuador, as well
as western parts of the United States such as California.
Parts of the western
Pacific, including Indonesia and Australia, suffer drought. The effects can last
for anything from a few weeks to 18 months, causing extreme weather as far afield
as India and east Africa.
The co-relation with global warming is as yet unclear.
Archaeological evidence shows El Niños and La Niñas have been occurring
for 15,000 years. But scientists are investigating whether climate change is leading
to an increase in their intensity or duration.